Criminal Predictive Analysis

CriPA
Criminal Predictive Analysis
Philip Glasner
University of Salzburg
SynerGIS Informationssysteme GmbH
Predictive Policing is …
Predictive Policing
in the Austrian media
Predictive Crime Analysis
„Predictive policing in the context of place is the use
of historical data to create a spatiotemporal forecast
of crime hot spots that will be the basis for police
resource allocation decisions with the expectation
that having officers at the proposed place and time
will deter or detect criminal activity.“
Jerry Ratcliffe (Temple University)
Research Project „CriPA“
• Criminal Predictive Analysis (CriPA)
• Austrian Security Research Program „KIRAS“
• Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG)
• Partners:
•
•
•
•
•
Joanneum Research
Criminal Intelligence Service Austria
SynerGIS Informationssysteme GmbH
Z_GIS
Institute for the Sociology of Law and Criminology,
University of Vienna
• Duration: 18 months (October 2013 – March 2015)
Study Area & Data
Vienna – the capital city of Austria
• 1.7 Mio residents
• 5th time in a row, the most livable city in the world
(International survey by Mercer)
• Since 2004, all crime events in Austria are stored in
a large database
• Approx. 550,000 incidents in Austria per year
• of which ~210,000 occur in Vienna (38%)
• About 10,000 residential burglaries per year
Research Project „CriPA“
• Aim of the project:
• Development and evaluation of
methods and software components
• to forecast future crime trends or
• to estimate the risks for criminal offenses
Hotspot Mapping
• Hotspots
• areas with high concentrations of crime.
• Conventional hotspot mapping
• uses locations of past events to anticipate
locations of future similar events.
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Density Map
Overlay of Contours
Near Repeat Victimization
• After an initial crime event,
• nearby targets have an increased risk of
victimization
• for a short period of time
• Space and time clustering
Explanations for Repeat Victimization
• Boost Explanations
• repeat victimization reflects the successful outcome
of an initial offense. Specific offenders gain
important knowledge about a target from prior
experience and use this information to re-offend.
• Flag Explanations
• some targets are unusually attractive to criminals
or particularly vulnerable to crime.
Evidence of Near Repeat Patterns
Researchers
Location
Observed
Event
Temporal
Parameter
Townsley, Homel &
Chaseling (2003)
Queensland, AUS
Burglary
2 months
Johnson & Bowers
(2004)
Merseyside, UK
Burglary
1 month
100m
10 Locations
5 Countries
Burglary
14 days
100m
Philadelphia, USA
Shootings
14 days
~122m
(400 ft)
Iraq
IED Attacks
2 days
1km
Johnson et. Al (2007)
Ratcliffe & Rengert
Townsley, Johnson &
Ratcliffe (2008)
Spatial
Parameter
200m
Responding to Repeat Victimization
1) Protecting victims by blocking future
opportunities against these specific
persons or places
2) Shifting responsibility for repeat
victimization
3) Increasing actual or perceived risks of
apprehension for offenders, primarily for
repeat offenders
Risk Terrain Modelling
16
Tactical
Deployment
Decisions:
From Product A
Respond
immediately to
crime hotspots
and high-risk
places
From Product B
Limit length of
time for targeted
deployments
From Product C
Prioritize target
areas
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Joint Operational Utility
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Challenges
• Obtaining acceptance
within the police
• Definition of „Success“
• Testing phase
• Evaluation and
adaption of
parameter settings
Thank you for your attention!
Comments are very welcome.
[email protected]