Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova
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Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova
Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014 International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting. • Data was collected throughout Moldova September 20 – October 20, 2014 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova 18 and older and eligible to vote. representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. • All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures: • Stage one: districts of Moldova are grouped into 11 groups. • Stage two: selection of the settlements – cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 62 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. It is 2 Increased Support for Pro-European Parties International Republican Institute Moldovan Parliamentary Parties Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats) • Liberal Democratic Party – 31 seats • Democratic Party – 15 seats • Liberal Reformist Party – 7 seats Independent Parties • Liberal Party – 5 seats, split from the ruling coalition in February 2013, supports European Union accession Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats) • Communist Party – 34 seats • Party of Socialists – 4 seats • Smaller Parties/Independents – 5 seats 4 Which of the parties would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday? Likely voters, n=952 Liberal Democratic Party 22% Democratic Party Ruling Pro-European Coalition = 37% 14% Liberal Reformist Party 1% Liberal Party 8% Communist Party 23% Party of Socialists 6% Republican Popular Party 10% People's Anti-Mafia Movement 1% Other 4% None 1% Don't know/Refused to answer 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 5 Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Sep-14 Probably no Definitely no 64% Jun-14 Don't know/No answer 15% 4% 6% 77% Jan-12 15% 50% 31% Dec-11 11% 3% 4% 1% 6% 3% 66% 21% 4% 3% 6% Aug-11 47% 33% 6% 4% Sep-10 47% 34% 5% 2% May-10 53% Feb-10 32% 55% 30% Nov-09 59% Nov-08 58% 28% 31% 61% Apr-08 0% 10% 20% 30% 50% 60% 70% 10% 12% 3%2% 10% 3% 3% 9% 2%3% 9% 4% 2% 5% 23% 40% 10% 4% 3% 80% 90% 9% 100% 6 What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing? Very good job Sep-14 Rather good job 18% 30% 8% Jun-14 0% Rather bad job 19% 38% 10% 20% 30% Very bad job Don’t know/No answer 24% 30% 40% 50% 60% 9% 15% 70% 80% 8% 90% 100% 7 If Moldova was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be with? The European Union Sep-14 The Customs Union/Eurasian Union Other 46% 0% 10% 20% Don’t know/No answer 42% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1% 80% 11% 90% 100% 8 If a referendum was held today on Moldova joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), how would you vote? For Moldova joining NATO Sep-14 Against Moldova joining NATO 31% 0% 10% Would not vote 31% 20% 30% 40% 50% Don’t know/No answer 15% 60% 70% 23% 80% 90% 100% 9 How would you assess the current relations between Moldova and the following entities? Good Bad Neither good, nor bad European Union Don't know/No answer 13% 71% Romania 68% Ukraine 60% United States 59% Russia 12% 10% 20% 60% 8% 19% 15% 51% 40% 7% 12% 14% 38% 0% 9% 7% 16% 7% 4% 80% 100% 10 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important economic partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest economic threat to Moldova? Partner 60% 50% 57% Threat 56% 44% 40% 37% 30% 30% 28% 21% 20% 17% 16% 10% 10% 11% 9% 8% 2% 0% Russia European Union Romania Ukraine United States None Don't know/No answer 11 Which of these countries do you consider to be the most important political partners for Moldova? Which of these countries do you consider to be the greatest political threat to Moldova? Partner Threat 60% 50% 50% 48% 43% 40% 29% 30% 20% 28% 23% 20% 21% 18% 10% 10% 14% 13% 8% 2% 0% European Union Russia Romania United States Ukraine None Don't know/No answer 12 Moldovans Concerned about Russia’s Actions in the Region International Republican Institute Who is responsible for the blockage of some Moldovan exports to Russia? First mentioned 47% Russian government 18% Moldovan government 10% Russian businesses Ukrainian government 6% Moldovan producers 4% The European Union 4% Don't know/No answer Second mentioned 14% 17% 25% 2% 9% 9% 11% 24% 14 What should Moldova do in response to the Russian blockage of some Moldovan exports? 1% Seek other markets for Moldovan goods 6% 12% Try to reason with Russia to accept Moldovan goods but without changing the priority of foreign policy of Moldova 44% Fully support the policy of Russia in order to win Russia’s support Other 37% Don’t know/No answer 15 Given the current Russian activities in Ukraine, do you consider Russian troops in Transnistria to be a threat to Moldova? They are a real threat to Moldova They are maybe a threat to Moldova, depending on events in Ukraine They are not a real threat to Moldova Don’t know/No answer Sep-14 46% 0% 10% 20% 28% 30% 40% 50% 60% 21% 70% 80% 5% 90% 100% 16 What do you think the future of Transnistria should be? Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy A part of the Russian Federation Independent Autonomy within the Republic of Moldova A part of Ukraine Don't know/No answer 60% Sep-14 15% Jun-14 67% Jan-12 66% Dec-11 66% Aug-11 61% Feb-11 60% 16% 17% Feb-10 68% Nov-09 69% Nov-08 68% 5% 17% 18% 19% 21% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 8% 4% 9% 8% 2% 8% 6% 4%1% 5% 5% 2%1%5% 6% 1%4% 7% 2% 1% 4% 7% 3% 4% 11% 12% 1% 2% 4% 80% Apr-06 4% 8% 3%1% 7% 12% 61% Mar-07 7% 6% 1% 16% 65% 4% 6%1% 5% 4% 20% 72% Apr-08 7% 18% May-10 11% 7% 1% 6% 3% 16% 65% Sep-10 8% 2% 0% 0% 0%0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine? Positively Indifferently Removal of the President V.Yanukovich Negatively 46% Appointment of A.Yatseniuk as Prime Minister of Ukraine 20% 38% Election of P.Poroshenko as the President of Ukraine 18% 19% 0% 14% 20% 19% 14% 32% 30% Crimea joining Russia 15% 25% 32% Referendum on self-rule held in Eastern Ukraine on May 11, 2014 Don't know/No answer 22% 16% 20% 28% 24% 55% 40% 60% 12% 80% 100% 18 Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine? Previous Ukrainian government Russia Certain groups of Ukrainian people Sep-14 23% Jun-14 9% 26% 0% 10% 40% 9% 20% 30% New Ukrainian government European Union Other 8% 28% 40% 50% 8% 60% 10% 70% 8% 4% 80% 3% 9% 16% 90% 100% 19 Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption International Republican Institute What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) 34% Unemployment 32% Corruption 31% Low income 11% High prices/Inflation Bad government/President 10% Emigration 10% Poverty 10% 9% Roads 6% European integration 5% Political crisis Indifference of the people 4% Economic situation 4% Instability/Chaos in the country 3% Education problems 3% Crime 3% Disruption of exports to Russia 3% Social assistance 2% The problems with European and Eurasian unions 2% Economic development 2% Healthcare system 2% 6% Don't know/No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 21 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) 40% Roads 23% Unemployment 11% 11% Low income Cleanliness 8% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Transportation High prices/Inflation Insufficient streets lighting Water supply Sanitation Corruption Gas supply Poverty Emigration Expensive housing/Utilities Inefficient work of civil servants Education Social assistance Traffic jams Healthcare system Crime 13% Don't know/No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 22 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) 46% Low incomes 14% Unemployment 10% Inflation/High prices Insufficient streets lighting 9% Poverty 9% 8% Expensive housing/Utilities 6% Health Emigration 3% Expensive drugs and medical services 3% Lonliness 3% Lack of social assistance 3% Lack of housing 3% 2% Corruption 21% Don't know/No answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 23 Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today? It is a very big issue It is not an issue at all It is a big issue Don't know/No answer Sep-14 73% Jun-14 18% 5% 1%3% 81% Jan-12 14% 73% Dec-11 29% 59% Sep-10 61% Nov-08 62% 10% 20% 30% 3% 5% 4% 1% 6% 25% 5% 26% 10% 2% 25% 66% 72% 0% 4% 2%3% 27% 64% Nov-04 4% 1% 5% 31% 60% Mar-06 4% 1% 7% 33% Nov-09 Mar-07 3%1% 4% 37% 58% Apr-08 3%1% 6% 31% 53% Feb-10 2% 1%2% 33% 57% May-10 2% 3% 15% 61% Feb-11 1% 1%3% 21% 80% Aug-11 50% 60% 70% 80% 8% 3% 5% 24% 40% 0% 0% 0% 0% It is not a big issue 2% 2% 90% 100% 24 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed? Improved a lot Worsened somewhat 6% Sep-14 Jun-14 22% 4% Jan-12 2% 15% 20% May-10 2% Feb-10 2% Nov-09 11% Mar-07 2% Mar-04 3% 0% 39% 22% 28% 30% 24% 32% 10% 27% 22% 37% 20% 30% 40% 25% 50% 6% 19% 5% 21% 4% 7% 60% 5% 5% 70% 6% 10% 27% 37% 23% 17% 20% 36% 26% 5% 15% 29% 24% 18% 20% 30% 13% 3% 10% 42% 20% Apr-06 3% 5% 38% 34% 4% Nov-04 30% 24% Jun-09 1% 9% Apr-08 26% 30% 3% 18% 22% 28% 2% 8% Nov-08 2% 17% 27% 14% 4% 29% 34% 18% 6% 22% 31% 25% 7% 14% 28% 23% 5% 19% 23% 31% Feb-11 3% Sep-10 21% 33% 13% 5% Stayed the same Don't know/No answer 24% 20% Dec-11 2% Aug-11 Improved somewhat Worsened a lot 5% 5% 6% 4% 9% 80% 4% 90% 3% 100% 25 Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Worsened somewhat Sep-14 4% 21% Jun-14 2% 10% Dec-11 1% 13% Sep-10 45% Feb-10 1% 8% Mar-07 3% Apr-06 2% Nov-04 4% Mar-04 2% 0% 2% 14% 3% 15% 3% 14% 4% 16% 39% 37% 19% 17% 27% 25% 23% 22% 47% 16% 30% 40% 22% 50% 60% 70% 80% 5% 5% 1% 20% 48% 20% 9% 9% 44% 23% 4% 16% 41% 3% 5% 14% 25% 2% 4% 9% 36% 15% 11% 15% 34% 32% 10% 17% 36% 46% Jun-09 1% 9% Apr-08 2% 28% 29% 36% Nov-09 1% 7% Nov-08 1% 3% 29% 42% 2% 15% 31% 36% May-10 1% 11% 9% 18% 34% 14% 3% 29% 43% 16% 15% 24% 39% 18% 4% 19% 41% 4% Feb-11 1% Stayed the same Don't know/No answer 38% 18% Jan-12 2% Aug-11 Improved somewhat Worsened a lot 5% 1% 10% 1% 90% 100% 26 In your opinion, how will economic situation of Moldova change in 2014? Improve a lot Sep-14 Improve somewhat 11% 0% Worsen somewhat 27% 6% Jun-14 Stay the same 24% 24% 10% 20% 29% 30% 40% 50% 60% Worsen a lot 11% 12% 17% 7% 70% Don't know/No answer 80% 15% 17% 90% 100% 27 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view? Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order Don't know/No answer Sep-14 58% 21% 11% 10% Jun-14 57% 24% 8% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 28 Moldovans on Government Performance International Republican Institute Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction 80% Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 74% 73% 70% 66% 61% 58% 58% 57% 55% 54% 50% 33% 34% 32% 30% 45% 41% 15% 14% 51% 47% 41% 38% 38% 33% 22% 19% 14% 15% 17% 9% 21% 14% 11% 9% 13% 12% 11% 12% 5% *From January 2012 – June 2014, IRI did not conduct polls in Moldova Sep-14 Jun-14 Jan-12 Dec-11 Aug-11 Feb-11 May-10 Nov-09 Jun-09 Nov-08 Apr-08 Mar-07 5% Apr-06 Nov-04 Mar-04 0% 8% 31% 53% 27% 20% 10% 40% 37% Feb-10 30% 10% 47% 42% 42% 40% 54% 51% Sep-10 60% 30 How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova? Very satisfied 9% Sep-14 Jun-14 Somewhat satisfied 31% 4% Jan-12 1% 23% Nov-09 3% Jun-09 1% Nov-08 2% Apr-08 2% Apr-06 1% 0% 25% 42% 26% 24% 10% 14% 44% 44% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 14% 16% 18% 43% 10% 15% 24% 41% 25% 10% 17% 20% 41% 21% Nov-04 2% Mar-04 2% 20% 41% 17% 8% 27% 37% 21% 10% 21% 37% 16% 9% 24% 40% 27% 9% 21% 41% 27% 5% Mar-07 11% 22% 36% 22% 9% 29% 39% 29% May-10 2% 4% 16% 36% 23% 7% 27% 25% 5% Feb-10 26% 43% 5% Don't know/No answer 30% 18% Feb-11 3% Sep-10 Very dissatisfied 26% 41% Dec-11 3% Aug-11 Somewhat dissatisfied 15% 17% 14% 14% 17% 13% 80% 90% 100% 31 How much interest do you have in politics? Not interested Sep-14 Medium interest 35% Interested Don't know/No answer 28% 34% 3% Jun-14 39% 29% 31% 1% Jan-12 38% 32% 28% 2% Dec-11 29% Aug-11 33% 37% 40% Feb-11 30% 36% 41% May-10 41% Feb-10 Jun-09 Nov-08 30% Mar-07 31% Nov-04 Mar-04 10% 20% 25% 28% 30% 40% 50% 27% 60% 70% 80% 2% 3% 23% 31% 1% 2% 21% 26% 41% 0% 25% 29% 48% 1% 22% 29% 46% 1% 34% 49% Mar-06 1% 30% 30% 45% 2% 32% 46% Apr-08 1% 28% 31% 35% 1% 32% 29% 39% 1% 34% 26% 36% Nov-09 29% 29% Sep-10 1% 1% 2% 90% 100% 32 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the government is doing its job? Strongly approve Sep-14 Jun-14 Somewhat approve 8% 33% 4% 0% Somewhat disapprove 23% 38% 10% 20% Strongly disapprove 30% 31% 30% 40% 50% Don’t know/No answer 60% 6% 21% 70% 80% 6% 90% 100% 33 Which politicians or public persons do you trust the most? (Spontaneous) 24% Vladimir Voronin 22% Iurie Leanca 17% Vlad Filat 15% Marian Lupu 13% Renato Usatii 12% Dorin Chirtoaca 11% Igor Dodon Michai Ghimpu 6% Igor Corman 6% 3% Mark Tkaciuk 2% Sergiu Mocanu Ion Hadarca 1% Zinaida Grecianii 1% 17% Other 15% None Don't know/No answer 5% 34 How would you rate the following political leaders? Favorable Iurie Leanca Dorin Chirtoaca Marian Lupu Igor Corman Vladimir Voronin Vlad Filat Renato Usatii Nicolae Timofti Maia Sandu Igor Dodon Mihai Ghimpu Valeru Strelet Valentina Buliga Dumitru Diacov Ion Hadarca Natalia Gherman Zinaida Grecianii Mark Tkaciuk Liliana Palihovici Valeru Munteanu Iurie Munteanu Mihai Godea Ion Sturza Vadim Misin Tatiana Potang Oleg Bodrug Stella Jantuan Unfavorable 51% 41% 39% 37% 36% 35% 32% 29% 28% 26% 26% 23% 21% 20% 20% 18% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 11% 11% 10% 10% 27% 7% 37% 7% 33% 0% 20% Have not heard of Don't know/No answer 40% 5% 4% 9% 3% 4% 43% 13% 7% 60% 1% 3% 61% 1% 3% 50% 10% 8% 63% 4% 4% 47% 19% 5% 67% 3% 4% 66% 4% 4% 45% 23% 9% 63% 11% 5% 63% 10% 7% 55% 18% 7% 43% 29% 10% 63% 12% 7% 61% 15% 8% 35% 40% 10% 48% 29% 9% 57% 22% 8% 54% 26% 9% 49% 30% 10% 59% 23% 8% 52% 11% 45% 11% 49% 11% 45% 54% 40% 60% 5% 80% 100% 35 Now I am going to read you the names of some Moldovan and international institutions. Please tell me about each of them, what is your opinion about the activity of each of these institutions? Favorable Unfavorable Don’t know/No answer 69% 60% Moldovan mass media Moldovan Mitropoly (church) 23% 24% 39% 47% 49% 45% 41% 41% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 35% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 29% 28% 28% 23% European Union Education system Bessarabian Mitropoly (church) Local authorities Moldovan Government Army United Nations United States Commonwealth of Independent States Moldovan Parliament Central Electoral Commission North Atlantic Treaty Organization President’s office Nongovernmental organizations Police authorities Healthcare system Political parties Unions of businessmen Central bank Courts of justice 0% 20% 16% 12% 7% 25% 10% 6% 13% 29% 24% 28% 7% 21% 27% 8% 34% 49% 55% 48% 32% 38% 34% 56% 44% 38% 58% 27% 8% 39% 62% 64% 63% 36% 6% 5% 8% 36% 56% 60% 40% 60% 16% 17% 80% 100% 36 Sources of information International Republican Institute Which of these media outlets do you use for gaining political information? 91% 93% TV news/Programs Radio news/Programs 39% 39% 35% Relatives/Friends 35% 35% Internet 23% 24% Articles in newspapers Billboards/Stands in the streets Leaflets/Other free information by mail Articles in magazines 21% 6% 5% Meetings with politicians Work colleagues 51% 7% 6% 3% Other 2% None 2% 2% 18% Sep-14 Jun-14 14% 13% 8% 38 In general, what is the influence of each of these forms of election campaigning? Please tell me about each of them, does it have a great influence, some influence, not much influence or no influence at all? Great/Some influence Not much/No influence Don't know/No answer 73% TV ads 24% 72% Meetings with politicians Meetings with/Opinions of respected people 25% 69% Radio ads 26% 40% 56% Visits of party or candidate representatives to your house 54% Articles in newspapers about the candidates Leaflets Paid ads in press for the candidate or party 38% 4% 8% 5% 48% 47% 5% 43% Personal letters to you from the candidate 42% 47% 4% 53% 5% 49% 39% 20% 8% 53% 42% 0% 5% 47% Billboards Slogans/Texts on transport means 4% 48% 45% Telephone calls to your house from the political party or candidate 2% 9% 56% 40% 60% 5% 80% 100% 39 How often do you use the Internet? Every day 5-6 days a week Sep-14 33% Jun-14 32% 6% 6% Jan-12 23% 4% 4% 4% Dec-11 23% 4% 4% 4% Aug-11 18% Feb-11 17% Sep-10 18% May-10 6% 6% 5% 13% Feb-10 5% 15% Nov-09 12% 0% 10% 7% 6% 8% 5% 5% 8% 5% 2% 4% 3-4 days a week 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 12% 20% 30% 1-2 days a week 6% 4% 3% 6% 4% 3% 11% 47% 1% 48% 1% 52% 8% 2% 56% 14% 12% 11% 2% 45% 4% 51% 1% 51% 13% 3% 52% 12% 2% 48% 6% 59% 40% 50% 60% 70% 4% 80% 90% 100% 40 Where do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619) At home 98% At work 16% At school/University 10% At friend’s home 6% Internet café Other 2% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 41 By what means do you access the Internet? (Internet users, n=619) PC desktop 54% PC laptop 53% Mobile phone 22% Tablet 11% Don't know/No answer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 42 Do you use any of the following social media sites? (Internet users, n=619) Odnoklasniki 82% Facebook 53% Vkontakte 25% Twitter 9% MoiMir 8% Linkedin LiveJournal 2% 0% I don’t use social media 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 43 Demographics International Republican Institute GENDER Demographics 47% Male 53% Female 25% AGE 18-29 years 33% 30-49 years 42% EDUCATION 50 years and older 19% Unfinished secondary 22% Secondary 35% Vocational 24% Higher/Incomplete higher 7% Romanian 77% ETHNICITY Moldovan 4% Ukrainian Russian 5% Gagauz 4% Other 3% 86% RELIGION Russian Orthodox 8% Romanian Ortodox Other 3% None 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 45 Demographics 2% 6% 2% 3% 5% 8% 4% 2% 8% Manager/Director/Patron Specialist Technician White collar OCCUPATION Services, trade Blue collar Unqualified worker Farmer Student 27% Retired/Not working 10% 14% Housewife Unemployed/Looking for job 2% 4% 3% Unemployed/Not looking for job Other SITUATION OF FAMILY No answer 41% 47% Bad Average 8% 4% Good No answer 31% BASIC SOURCES OF LIVELIHOOD My salary or the income of enterprise or farmer activity 51% The salary or incomes of some of the members of family 17% Sale of products of the part-time farm 33% 33% Use of products of the part-time farm Social benefits 15% The help of relatives/Friends in a form of money or food and goods 2% 3% Something else SETTLEME NT TYPE Don't know/No answer 22% 22% Chisinau Mid-sized/Small town 56% Rural area 0% 50% 100% 46 International Republican Institute (202) 408-9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal
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